The Trump-Xi Truce: Leverage and Power Dynamics
The US retains formidable advantages, including frontier AI capabilities and wealthy allies.
However, the Trump administration repeatedly undermines these strengths, leading to a strategically schizophrenic policy towards China.
The president's deal-making instincts routinely override the counsel of Washington's most hawkish China advisors.
This has resulted in a pattern of confrontation and accommodation, with policy choices depending on who is steering the ship at any given moment.
- Tariff rates have soared to 145% before plummeting to 30%.
- Bans on advanced chip design tools have been reversed for talks of selling powerful Nvidia Blackwell chips to Beijing.
- Uncertainty over Taiwan continues.
Author's summary: Trump's China policy is marked by contradictions and unpredictability.
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